Upcoming Research
Development of an Earth / Sun System Knowledge Environment
Preparing for CCSM-4
With a new dynamical core, improved physics and inclusion of biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosols, the CCSM model version 4 will be an exciting tool for community climate research.
A Nested Regional Climate Model
Adapting the WRF model to a community Nested Regional Climate Model that includes atmosphere, ocean, land, and other components from CCSM (such as atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemistry, and sea ice), will provide an ideal tool for investigating earth system processes that cut across scales.
An Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere Study
The upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region is of critical importance for understanding long term climate change. Here, ozone is an effective greenhouse gas, and water vapor, cirrus clouds, and aerosols have a strong influence on radiation balance. It is also a region where transport processes that couple the stratosphere and troposphere occur on a multitude of scales and where multiphase chemistry and cloud microphysical processes influence the variability of ozone and water vapor, and hence affect long term climate change.
ESSL's UTLS research is motivated by the scientific significance and broad community interest in the UTLS region and the upcoming opportunities in UTLS research involving the new NSF research aircraft, HIAPER, and NASA A-Train satellite measurements. The scientific objective of this initiative is to conduct integrated studies of UTLS water vapor, ozone, clouds and their controlling processes using airborne and spaceborne observational capabilities in conjunction with NCAR modeling tools.
The BEACCHON Project
A study of the impact of biogenic aerosols on clouds and precipitation, especially focussed on the linnks between carbon, nitrogen and water cycles.
Improvements in the accuracy of weather and hurricane forecasting: The New Data Assimilation Testbed Center
ESSL's variational data assimilation effort is focused on research, further development and applications of the WRF-Var system. Priority research areas are currently: direct assimilation of satellite radiances; radar and GPS data assimilation; mesoscale multi-incremental 4D-Var; and polar real-time data assimilation. The WRF-Var system is an integral part of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) system, released and supported by MMM Division for the research community. A new Data Assimilation System Testbed is being developed to research and develop advanced data assimilation techniques in order to improve the weather forecasting, including hurricanes and severe storms.
Chemical weather: the effects of urbanization, and the development of the WRF-Chem model
A major step in this area of research was the March 2006 MIRAGE (Megacities Impact on Regional and Global Weather) field program, which included daily plume/chemical transport forecasts by the WRF and WRF-Chem models. Understanding the extent to which humans influence/change earth's weather through pollution in our ever-growing urban centers, will assist efforts to mitigate the adverse impacts. Additional benefits of this research come in understanding and forecasting the dispersion of hazardous chemicals, caused by industrial processes, accident, or malicious intent.
The impacts of solar variability on the earth system
Processes such as predictability of solar variability on all scales; processes associated with flux eruptions; heliospheric modeling; prediction of space weather; and the impact on the stratosphere, troposphere and climate will be pursued.
Of interest is a vigorous, multi-faceted program of research on space weather, lead by HAO, that embraces a variety of efforts aimed at improving our understanding of the behavior of the Sun-Earth system. Among the many space weather-related topics receiving attention include: the physical mechanisms underlying solar activity, particulary expulsions of mass and magnetic fields in the form of CMEs; the propgation of such disturbances through the interplanetary medium, their evolution and effects on the space environment from the Sun to the Earth; the interaction of ejecta from the Sun with the terrestrial magnetosphere, and the transmission of effects from this interaction into the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. HAO is an active participant in the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM), a Science and Technology Center funded by the National Science Foundation.